Natural Variability Has Concealed Increases in Western US Flood Hazard Since the 1970s

نویسندگان

چکیده

Flood hazard across the western United States (US) has generally shown decreasing trends in recent decades. This region's extreme streamflow is highly influenced by natural variability, which could either mask or amplify anthropogenic trends. In this study, we utilize a technique known as dynamical adjustment to assess historical (1970–2020) annual maximum 1-day (Qx1d) from unregulated basins US with and without impact of variability. After removing fraction positive (>5%) trend Qx1d shifts 25% 53%. Basins increasing (decreasing) after exhibit weak (strong) drying, furthermore are associated intensifying precipitation extremes and/or large decreases snowpack. Increasing flood will likely emerge for such current phase decadal variability shifts, signals continue intensify.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097706